Mon, Mar 14, 2011·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 110 | 016 | 336 |
| CHI | 111 | 517 | 06 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 12:13CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Chris Campoli, Ryan Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:36SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 3:14CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 6:06CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 7:25CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 14:29CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P2 17:24SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P2 17:46CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:08CHIFernando Pisani: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 2:07CHIRyan Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:23SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P1 16:33SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:09SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16SJSDevin Setoguchi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:48SJSBen Eager: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:07CHIChris Campoli: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:16SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Dowell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Clowe – Couture10:21
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi6:23
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins4:01
xG 0.04–0.44 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell4:14
xG 0.11–1.01 (10%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic2:27
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers12:46
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 2–2
- Boyle – Murray14:52
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Brouwer – Frolik6:40
xG 0.76–0.10 (88%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane11:51
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Johnson – Kopecky – Stalberg4:05
xG 0.10–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Pisani – Bickell – Dowell9:45
xG 0.29–0.63 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Campoli5:38
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson11:54
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–14goals 3–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:24
xG 0.22–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).