Tue, Mar 15, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Atlanta Thrashers 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 29 | 02 | 09 | 220 |
| NJD | 19 | 19 | 26 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24ATLTim StapletonAssists: Evander Kane, Anthony Stewart · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:29ATLChris ThorburnAssists: Radek Dvorak, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 18:52NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Mark Fayne, Henrik Tallinder · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:10NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:14NJDJacob JosefsonGWGAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Colin White · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:43NJDIlya KovalchukENAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:13NJDHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19ATLBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Zubrus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Antropov – Thorburn8:14
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Boulton – Schremp – Burmistrov6:29
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:52
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Stewart – Stapleton – Kane10:01
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien4:30
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien14:11
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Stuart8:58
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri14:58
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus10:35
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Mair – Steckel – Zharkov7:23
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Tedenby – Josefson10:12
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Volchenkov14:54
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne17:05
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Greene – Salmela18:09
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).