Tue, Mar 15, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 25 | 111 | 328 |
| NYR | 221 | 315 | 111 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47NYRBrandon PrustSHAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 14:52NYRErik ChristensenPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 1:21NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Jack Hillen, John Tavares · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 3:50NYIPA ParenteauAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 11:31NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Artem Anisimov, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 15:09NYRMarian GaborikPPGWGAssists: Bryan McCabe · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 19:11NYRBryan McCabePPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.35 xG2–5
- P3 12:43NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Erik Christensen, Michael Sauer · Snap, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 15:57NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:47NYRSean Avery: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:55NYIMicheal Haley: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:45NYRRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:45NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:39NYRSean Avery: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:39NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:27NYIBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:17NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:17NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:12NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:27NYRMichael Sauer: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:27NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:50NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:50NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:50NYRArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:50NYIMatt Moulson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:50NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:37
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin7:18
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – DiBenedetto6:27
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:16
xG 0.29–1.41 (17%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:15
xG 0.63–0.72 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Martinek – Hillen16:01
xG 0.46–0.98 (32%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Gervais11:33
xG 0.00–1.18 (0%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:06
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust10:43
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Avery – Stepan – Zuccarello4:50
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Christensen9:13
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi16:28
xG 1.59–0.59 (73%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- McCabe – Eminger12:47
xG 0.60–0.07 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Sauer – McDonagh13:16
xG 0.70–0.54 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).