Tue, Mar 15, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 216 | 019 | 26 | 441 |
| MTL | 112 | 16 | 08 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 1:26MTLTravis MoenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:23WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Karl Alzner, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 3:28MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Lars Eller, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:43WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 16:53WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Marco Sturm · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:46MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:48MTLPaul Mara: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:20WSHMarco Sturm: Holding2 min
- P1 16:42WSHTyler Sloan: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:07MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
- P1 18:17MTLPaul Mara: Interference2 min
- P2 11:32MTLTravis Moen: Holding2 min
- P3 3:08MTLJames Wisniewski: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:08WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:42WSHMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:00MTLLars Eller: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Semin – Ovechkin7:58
xG 2.42–0.09 (96%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Knuble – Sturm – Johansson6:44
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Chimera – Fehr – Beagle3:45
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sturm – Laich – Semin4:34
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:13
xG 3.03–0.08 (97%)attempts 22–5goals 2–0
- Hannan – Wideman2:02
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schultz14:53
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Pyatt – Desharnais5:48
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Pouliot – Desharnais4:36
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – White – Eller8:22
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec5:20
xG 0.06–0.59 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mara – Weber8:01
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski16:19
xG 0.68–0.79 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Subban2:11
xG 0.07–0.26 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).