Tue, Mar 15, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 314 | 114 | 541 |
| OTT | 06 | 13 | 013 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14PITTyler KennedyAssists: Paul Martin, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 1:21PITJordan StaalGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 2:08OTTRyan ShannonPPAssists: Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 3:05PITBen LovejoyAssists: Jordan Staal, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 7:34PITMatt CookeAssists: Dustin Jeffrey, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 8:47PITZbynek MichalekAssists: Dustin Jeffrey, Alex Kovalev · Slap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:55OTTZack Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:45PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:40PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:40OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:19OTTColin Greening: Interference2 min
- P2 2:02PITZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:30OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 12:13OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:10OTTFrancis Lessard: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:10PITDeryk Engelland: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:03OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:41PITMike Rupp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Shannon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Rupp – Talbot4:34
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Letestu4:29
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal8:34
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Jeffrey2:11
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Lovejoy14:37
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Engelland – Potter9:42
xG 0.48–0.45 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek11:44
xG 0.82–1.05 (44%)attempts 21–13goals 3–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Foligno – Condra3:32
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – O'Brien – Butler2:16
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith3:57
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler9:13
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Lee6:05
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Benoit5:18
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Benoit – Lee6:23
xG 0.02–0.34 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).