Tue, Mar 15, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 218 | 04 | 331 |
| FLA | 27 | 08 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28PHIScott HartnellAssists: Mike Richards, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:06FLAStephen WeissAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:11FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Sergei Samsonov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 4:43PHIJeff CarterAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 15:23PHIJeff CarterGWGAssists: Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:20PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:24FLARyan Carter: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:28FLAMike Weaver: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:46FLAMike Duco: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:46PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:16FLAMichal Repik: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:06PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:44FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:56PHIJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:48FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Carter – Giroux13:08
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe4:15
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–7goals 0–2
- Carcillo – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk7:02
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Richards – Leino9:42
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros3:37
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle3:06
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Meszaros2:01
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Booth – Repik11:02
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors13:21
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Hordichuk – Rissmiller – Carter4:26
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Bernier – Santorelli – Duco5:00
xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov12:53
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 2–2
- Callahan – Wilson7:17
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison15:38
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).