Tue, Mar 15, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 111 | 16 | 28 | 425 |
| CGY | 18 | 011 | 28 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25PHXLee StempniakAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Taylor Pyatt · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:02CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Rene Bourque, Miikka Kiprusoff · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:11PHXEric BelangerAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 1:53PHXKeith YandleAssists: Radim Vrbata, Andrew Ebbett · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 2:12PHXMichal RozsivalGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 3:09CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 9:28CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Rene Bourque, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:32CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:25CGYLance Bouma: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:25PHXRostislav Klesla: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09PHXAndrew Ebbett: Holding2 min
- P3 3:04PHXLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak13:09
xG 0.50–0.09 (84%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski13:35
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Turris4:09
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Ebbett6:59
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Schlemko16:23
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Morris – Yandle13:51
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Aucoin – Klesla16:23
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Hagman – Jackman3:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Tanguay – Bourque6:38
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan6:56
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Backlund4:25
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano10:30
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Staios – Babchuk8:28
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Giordano3:09
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).