Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 19 | 116 | 01 | 338 |
| NSH | 19 | 112 | 17 | 13 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Rich Peverley, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:53NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Colin Wilson, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:59NSHColin WilsonAssists: Jonathon Blum, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:33BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Nathan Horton, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 1:42BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Mark Recchi, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 10:56NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–3
- OT 3:37NSHShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, David Legwand · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:23NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Interference2 min
- P1 13:13BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P1 17:30NSHPatric Hornqvist: Elbowing5 min
- P1 17:30NSHPatric Hornqvist: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 5:56BOSMichael Ryder: Interference2 min
- P2 7:16BOSDaniel Paille: Holding2 min
- P3 8:46NSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:59BOSSteven Kampfer: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic11:16
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:17
xG 0.48–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Seguin8:32
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Bergeron8:43
xG 0.46–1.22 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Kampfer9:13
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Kaberle – McQuaid12:30
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk12:19
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Hornqvist3:25
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Wilson4:15
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Halischuk3:14
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Halischuk3:02
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber17:30
xG 1.34–1.00 (57%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- O'Brien – Franson11:23
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum12:22
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).