Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 17 | 12 | 317 |
| EDM | 010 | 07 | 119 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:13PHXLee StempniakAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 11:32PHXRay WhitneyGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Andrew Ebbett · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 6:05EDMMagnus PaajarviPPAssists: Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 11:57PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Shane Doan, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:29PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:28PHXLee Stempniak: Elbowing2 min
- P1 11:58EDMRyan Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:28PHXMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min
- P1 16:03EDMAlexandre Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:41PHXRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:50PHXRay Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:09PHXBrett MacLean: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:29EDMAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:29PHXEric Belanger: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:20EDMLiam Reddox: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:46PHXKeith Yandle: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:17PHXEric Belanger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:16PHXMikkel Boedker: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:23EDMLinus Omark: Diving2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21PHXRostislav Klesla: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fraser won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMacLean – Turris – Boedker3:36
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Ebbett7:53
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski5:10
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak9:02
xG 0.16–0.44 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Schlemko11:24
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Klesla9:21
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle11:49
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Cogliano – Eberle6:29
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Omark – Paajarvi3:36
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Reddox – O'Marra7:05
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- MacIntyre – VandeVelde – Hartikainen3:17
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Petry7:53
xG 0.53–0.01 (97%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid6:48
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid2:59
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).