Thu, Mar 17, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 19 | 09 | 230 |
| SJS | 113 | 121 | 116 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:29SJSJamal MayersAssists: Joe Pavelski, Torrey Mitchell · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:53MINJohn MaddenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:33SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Douglas Murray, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 13:23MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Martin Havlat, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:00SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi · Slap, 0.39 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:52MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:27SJSDan Boyle: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:46MINClayton Stoner: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:35MINMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:22MINClayton Stoner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:56MINBrad Staubitz: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:56MINBrad Staubitz: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:50MINMartin Havlat: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:50SJSTorrey Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:53
xG 1.63–1.13 (59%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Cullen – Madden – Clutterbuck8:39
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:59
xG 0.20–0.60 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Kobasew – Nystrom – Staubitz7:01
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Spurgeon2:38
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns14:42
xG 0.61–0.71 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon8:20
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell9:53
xG 1.62–0.22 (88%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Clowe – Eager – Couture11:46
xG 1.03–0.62 (62%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi10:44
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Mayers – Desjardins – McCarthy5:21
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray17:19
xG 1.28–0.65 (66%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- White – Demers11:40
xG 0.84–0.29 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:38
xG 0.89–1.14 (44%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).