Fri, Mar 18, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 3, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 12 | 16 | 14 | 312 |
| NJD | 012 | 08 | 013 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10WSHJeff SchultzGWGAssists: Mike Knuble, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 15:58WSHMike KnubleAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 11:24WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:50WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:56WSHDennis Wideman: Delaying game2 min
- P2 16:51WSHMatt Hendricks: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon8:01
xG 0.02–0.14 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Beagle9:14
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Johansson12:33
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 9–18goals 3–0
- Sturm – Semin – Backstrom14:00
xG 0.04–0.47 (8%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson19:23
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Hannan – Sloan11:22
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schultz15:36
xG 0.27–0.90 (23%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Zubrus11:15
xG 1.12–0.31 (78%)attempts 20–5goals 0–2
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri15:11
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Mair – Pelley – Zharkov7:42
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Tedenby – Josefson9:00
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salmela15:26
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Fayne19:22
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- White – Volchenkov10:50
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).