Fri, Mar 18, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 19 | 17 | 325 |
| NYR | 513 | 09 | 19 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28NYRArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:11MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Benoit Pouliot, David Desharnais · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:25NYRDan GirardiAssists: Erik Christensen, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 17:09NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Artem Anisimov, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
- P1 17:41NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Erik Christensen, Vinny Prospal · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P1 18:16NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Marc Staal, Brandon Prust · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 4:13MTLJames WisniewskiAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 0:54MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 17:15NYRVinny ProspalPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:01NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:37NYRBrandon Prust: Interference2 min
- P1 7:37MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:16MTLRoman Hamrlik: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:50NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:03NYRErik Christensen: Holding2 min
- P2 12:45MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:00MTLP.K. Subban: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:00NYRMichael Sauer: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:07NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:43NYRBryan McCabe: Holding2 min
- P3 16:21MTLBenoit Pouliot: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – White – Eller3:01
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Pouliot – Desharnais2:57
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dawes – Pyatt – Palushaj2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White3:04
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 4–3goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Subban12:40
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski14:44
xG 0.57–1.11 (34%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Picard – Weber10:49
xG 0.11–1.22 (8%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov10:20
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 7–11goals 2–1
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:08
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Christensen7:54
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust7:04
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi16:19
xG 1.85–0.54 (77%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- McCabe – Eminger8:37
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Sauer – McDonagh14:28
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).