Fri, Mar 18, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 117 | 06 | 01 | 237 |
| CAR | 111 | 08 | 114 | 12 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:33CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:52NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Michael Grabner, Radek Martinek · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:10NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Travis Hamonic, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.38 xG2–1
- P3 15:23CARErik ColeAssists: Cory Stillman · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:58CARJoni PitkanenGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:26NYIMicheal Haley: Interference2 min
- P2 6:58CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43CARTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:00CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:41CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:17NYIJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:16
xG 1.26–1.12 (53%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:23
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey8:50
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Konopka – Haley – Martin6:58
xG 0.22–0.61 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen18:16
xG 1.45–0.40 (78%)attempts 27–15goals 1–0
- Jurcina – Gervais8:27
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:31
xG 0.94–1.60 (37%)attempts 14–30goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Tlusty – Sutter6:54
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Bowman – Samson4:20
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman2:49
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner12:22
xG 0.92–1.17 (44%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Pitkanen5:02
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason9:57
xG 0.71–0.36 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Allen – Joslin7:16
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).