Fri, Mar 18, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 06 | 014 | 39 | 329 |
| VAN | 012 | 016 | 119 | 147 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:31PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Eric Belanger, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 14:49PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, David Schlemko · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 17:02VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:55PHXLee StempniakENAssists: Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:05VANDan Hamhuis: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:44PHXTaylor Pyatt: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:14VANRoberto Luongo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:45PHXJason LaBarbera: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:22VANKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:11PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:15PHXDerek Morris: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:15VANMaxim Lapierre: Diving2 min
- P3 4:16PHXAdrian Aucoin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:06PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:52VANMikael Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:09VANAlexandre Burrows: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 11:09VANAlexandre Burrows: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski8:31
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak11:37
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Ebbett3:12
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- MacLean – Turris – Boedker6:03
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Schlemko6:25
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle13:40
xG 0.55–1.05 (34%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Klesla11:36
xG 0.03–0.64 (5%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows7:31
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin2:53
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Higgins – Kesler8:00
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tambellini – Oreskovich – Raymond5:26
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Tanev7:15
xG 0.88–0.15 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ehrhoff11:25
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Salo – Hamhuis2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).