Sat, Mar 19, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 015 | 111 | 237 |
| TOR | 29 | 312 | 08 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44TORLuke SchennAssists: Joey Crabb · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 11:46BOSAdam McQuaidUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P1 12:26TORNazem KadriAssists: Joey Crabb, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 7:49TORJoey CrabbGWGAssists: Darryl Boyce, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.48 xG1–3
- P2 8:18TORMike BrownAssists: Tim Brent, Brett Lebda · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 17:23TORKeith AulieAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 19:40BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Shawn Thornton, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.22 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:41BOSMichael Ryder: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:19TORTim Brent: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:42TORMike Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:45TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:45BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:55BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic11:11
xG 1.39–0.33 (81%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:04
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Kelly – Peverley – Seguin11:16
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Recchi – Ryder – Bergeron11:08
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:44
xG 1.46–1.01 (59%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:37
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Ference – Seidenberg6:11
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Boyce – Kadri6:22
xG 1.27–0.41 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown7:19
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak13:28
xG 0.64–0.83 (43%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:00
xG 0.25–1.47 (15%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Lashoff6:00
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn12:03
xG 1.11–0.96 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Lebda – Gunnarsson3:33
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).