Sat, Mar 19, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 09 | 020 | 140 |
| NSH | 010 | 118 | 211 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38DETDaniel ClearyPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 8:42NSHBlake GeoffrionAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Matt Halischuk · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 8:12NSHJonathon BlumPPGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 19:31NSHDavid LegwandENAssists: Ryan Suter, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:00NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:30NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:17DETDaniel Cleary: Holding2 min
- P3 7:04DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:07NSHRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Eaves – Helm9:29
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Filppula – Miller – Abdelkader2:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Modano – Holmstrom – Filppula10:10
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg12:28
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Kindl15:55
xG 0.78–0.31 (71%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:27
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall2:09
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward13:15
xG 0.69–0.49 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling4:57
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist2:36
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Wilson9:26
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson12:42
xG 0.75–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Klein – Blum12:58
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber19:48
xG 0.25–1.02 (20%)attempts 15–29goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).