Sat, Mar 19, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 110 | 09 | 02 | 2 | 330 |
| DAL | 04 | 113 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:39PHIJeff CarterAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Matt Carle · Deflected, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 1:17PHIMike RichardsAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 12:44DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 14:24DALStephane RobidasAssists: Steve Ott · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 3. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
- 6. PHI Kris Versteeg stopped
- 7. DAL Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
- 8. PHI Kimmo Timonen stopped
- 9. DAL Stephane Robidas stopped
- 10. PHI Jeff Carter stopped
- 11. DAL Brandon Segal stopped
- 12. PHI Ville Leino scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:46DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:24PHIDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P2 5:54PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:02PHISean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
- P3 16:44DALJeff Woywitka: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44PHIDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P3 18:23PHIKimmo Timonen: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – Nodl11:28
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk9:18
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe5:49
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:30
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros14:43
xG 1.04–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros3:50
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Gustafsson4:35
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Richards – Ott13:11
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Petersen – Williams – Wandell5:59
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Wandell – Vincour2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn12:05
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski12:43
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 22–3goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley12:01
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski3:31
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).