Sat, Mar 19, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 111 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 327 |
| EDM | 06 | 17 | 116 | 04 | 0 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:47COLMatt DucheneAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 13:05EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Kurtis Foster · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:00COLKevin PorterAssists: Ryan Wilson, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 16:10EDMKurtis FosterAssists: Linus Omark, Magnus Paajarvi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 3. EDM Linus Omark stopped
- 4. COL Kevin Porter stopped
- 5. EDM Alexandre Giroux stopped
- 6. COL David Jones stopped
- 7. EDM Magnus Paajarvi stopped
- 8. COL Ryan Stoa scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:11EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:11COLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:16EDMJim Vandermeer: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:40COLBrandon Yip: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:37EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:02COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:35COLCody McLeod: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- OT 3:37COLJonas Holos: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Yip – O'Reilly6:12
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stoa12:50
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Koci – McClement – McLeod2:17
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – O'Reilly2:53
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Wilson13:35
xG 0.84–0.44 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Liles – O'Byrne14:50
xG 0.63–0.55 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Holos12:35
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestReddox – Omark – Paajarvi13:44
xG 0.58–0.18 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Cogliano – Eberle11:58
xG 0.38–0.48 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – VandeVelde – Hartikainen9:04
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Smid13:05
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Smid2:43
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Foster – Peckham13:08
xG 0.57–0.67 (46%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).