Sat, Mar 19, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 08 | 06 | 13 | 225 |
| LAK | 08 | 013 | 111 | 00 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24ANABrandon McMillanAssists: Dan Sexton, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 11:04LAKDustin BrownAssists: Michal Handzus, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 1:32ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:31LAKRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:14ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:21ANALuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:16LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 5:08ANAAndy Sutton: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30ANAAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:48LAKAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:36ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:56ANACam Fowler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake9:21
xG 0.93–0.28 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Winchester – McMillan – Sexton6:00
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan13:03
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Koivu – Blake – Sexton2:11
xG 0.02–0.13 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Sbisa12:05
xG 1.21–0.63 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky9:09
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Sutton – Fowler7:17
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Stoll – Brown11:50
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Westgarth5:12
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Williams – Penner – Kopitar11:45
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds7:56
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Johnson14:59
xG 0.94–0.90 (51%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Scuderi2:24
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez5:27
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).