Sat, Mar 19, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 115 | 215 | 345 |
| SJS | 315 | 214 | 05 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Joe Pavelski, Ian White · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 4:45SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 7:41SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Devin Setoguchi · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 8:19STLT.J. HensickAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 12:30SJSDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 19:54SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dan Boyle, Torrey Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 8:00STLDavid BackesAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 18:21STLAndy McDonaldAssists: David Backes, Matt D'Agostini · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:33STLJaroslav Halak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:44STLB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 16:00SJSRyane Clowe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:00STLRyan Reaves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:24SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:57SJSJason Demers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHensick – Stewart – Berglund2:57
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Stewart6:56
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Porter – Oshie – Reaves3:49
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Janssen – Crombeen – Cracknell2:33
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:49
xG 1.07–0.40 (73%)attempts 28–12goals 1–0
- Cole – Pietrangelo2:07
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole2:50
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell3:41
xG 0.84–0.21 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi12:35
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Clowe – Eager – Couture6:58
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Mayers – Pavelski – Mitchell3:01
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Demers15:26
xG 1.45–0.63 (70%)attempts 23–22goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun17:33
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray16:17
xG 0.81–1.85 (30%)attempts 16–27goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).