Sun, Mar 20, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 07 | 413 | 527 |
| PIT | 110 | 019 | 111 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:59PITJordan StaalAssists: James Neal, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 6:26PITChris KunitzSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 9:28NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–2
- P3 9:39NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Erik Christensen, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 18:45NYRDerek StepanAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–2
- P3 19:20NYRBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:40NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:43PITDustin Jeffrey: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:44NYRMichael Sauer: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:36PITMatt Cooke: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P3 4:36PITMatt Cooke: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:54PITMatt Niskanen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 16:35NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jeffrey won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust10:22
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov10:32
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:34
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Christensen4:35
xG 0.02–0.39 (5%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Gilroy8:38
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Eminger – Girardi19:06
xG 0.90–1.05 (46%)attempts 16–31goals 0–1
- Sauer – McDonagh15:51
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Neal – Jeffrey10:57
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal9:07
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Rupp – Conner4:27
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Cooke – Dupuis – Talbot9:09
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Niskanen9:24
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang3:03
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Letang – Lovejoy12:32
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).