Sun, Mar 20, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New Jersey Devils 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 111 | 111 | 331 |
| CBJ | 02 | 05 | 06 | 013 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:24NJDDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Jacob Josefson, Mattias Tedenby · Tip-in, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 8:50NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 3:22NJDNick PalmieriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:07CBJRick Nash: Interference2 min
- P2 1:59CBJDerick Brassard: Interference2 min
- P2 4:47NJDAdam Mair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:20CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:55CBJDerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Tedenby – Josefson7:17
xG 0.87–0.10 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri10:42
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus10:54
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Mair – Steckel – Zharkov5:51
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Volchenkov12:22
xG 0.82–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Greene – Salmela14:47
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fayne17:21
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Vermette – Umberger – Calvert2:55
xG 0.14–0.16 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Nash – Voracek2:36
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Upshall6:43
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek9:35
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Methot10:04
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Russell5:05
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Lepisto2:02
xG 0.13–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).