Sun, Mar 20, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 213 | 114 | 02 | 441 |
| ANA | 39 | 09 | 111 | 14 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 3:36ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.52 xG0–2
- P1 5:49ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P1 18:52CGYTom KostopoulosAssists: Matt Stajan, Tim Jackman · Slap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 8:04CGYRene BourqueAssists: Curtis Glencross, Tom Kostopoulos · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 16:44CGYTom KostopoulosAssists: Steve Staios, Curtis Glencross · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 7:10CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 17:59ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Lubomir Visnovsky · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 2:38ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Toni Lydman, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:44CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43ANABrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:23ANACorey Perry: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:08ANAJason Blake: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:45ANACam Fowler: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:12CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:58CGYRene Bourque: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 2:34CGYSteve Staios: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Glencross – Bourque5:40
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Kotalik – Hagman – Stajan8:31
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay8:47
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Backlund2:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Regehr2:04
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Staios – Babchuk7:50
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester17:22
xG 0.53–0.44 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMarchant – Ruutu – Parros5:35
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Winchester – McMillan – Sexton7:07
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan2:21
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:38
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Fowler10:53
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Lydman – Beauchemin2:00
xG 0.06–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler3:08
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).