Tue, Mar 22, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 17 | 15 | 04 | 3 | 523 |
| PHI | 010 | 211 | 211 | 01 | 2 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:46WSHMike KnubleAssists: Jason Chimera, Marcus Johansson · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:22WSHDennis WidemanPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 8:05PHIKris VersteegAssists: Matt Carle, Andrej Meszaros · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 19:26PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Andreas Nodl, Braydon Coburn · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 9:58PHIAndreas NodlAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 14:15PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Ville Leino · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 16:41WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Mike Knuble, Scott Hannan · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Ville Leino scored
- 2. WSH Matt Hendricks scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 5. PHI Daniel Brière scored
- 6. WSH Alexander Semin scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:26PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:40WSHAlexander Semin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:24PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:54WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Chimera – Johansson11:55
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Beagle6:00
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Sturm – Bradley – Gordon9:27
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Backstrom12:28
xG 0.20–0.95 (18%)attempts 10–21goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Erskine13:22
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Hannan – Wideman3:39
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 1–2
- Wideman – Schultz12:56
xG 0.54–1.15 (32%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – Nodl14:04
xG 1.06–0.54 (66%)attempts 25–8goals 2–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe5:03
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino12:52
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk12:18
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn15:19
xG 1.25–0.47 (73%)attempts 19–8goals 1–2
- Timonen – Meszaros3:09
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Boynton3:49
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).