Tue, Mar 22, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 2, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 110 | 16 | 224 |
| MTL | 012 | 010 | 09 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:56BUFNathan GerbeGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 19:38BUFNathan GerbeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:10BUFBrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:50MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:53MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 2:09MTLPaul Mara: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:13BUFThomas Vanek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:00MTLAlexandre Picard: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:53MTLJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Mancari – Gerbe9:34
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick6:50
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Stafford – Ennis8:46
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek13:14
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers11:06
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Leopold – Myers2:21
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Leopold – Butler12:24
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Moen9:00
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Kostitsyn – Eller7:42
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Cammalleri4:13
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller5:27
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski16:04
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban14:28
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Mara – Picard9:04
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).