Tue, Mar 22, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 17 | 08 | 120 |
| NSH | 215 | 15 | 010 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08NSHMartin EratAssists: Joel Ward, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 7:40NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 7:00NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Ryan Suter, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 9:38EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jim Vandermeer · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:06EDMKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:49NSHCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P3 4:39EDMTheo Peckham: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:53EDMRyan O'Marra: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:15NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestReddox – Omark – Paajarvi10:43
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – O'Marra – Hartikainen2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Cogliano – Eberle10:18
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Giroux – VandeVelde – Hartikainen8:25
xG 0.17–0.76 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vandermeer – Petry11:31
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Foster – Peckham9:50
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Smid13:20
xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward12:43
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Wilson8:44
xG 0.06–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling11:26
xG 0.20–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist8:04
xG 0.22–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber17:01
xG 1.11–0.51 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Klein – Blum12:27
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson12:02
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).