Tue, Mar 22, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Minnesota Wild 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 13 | 16 | 317 |
| MIN | 07 | 011 | 011 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39TORJoffrey LupulGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 11:20TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 2:13TORCarl GunnarssonPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:01MINEric Nystrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:21MINMatt Cullen: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:06TORTim Brent: Interference2 min
- P1 18:20MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:12TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:07MINAndrew Brunette: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:04MINClayton Stoner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:04TORLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:06TORKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P3 15:39MINGreg Zanon: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:39TORMikhail Grabovski: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:14TORKeith Aulie: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:21TORMatt Lashoff: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak8:29
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Brent – Rosehill – Brown3:40
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:47
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sjostrom – Crabb – Kadri5:53
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLashoff – Schenn3:29
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Aulie – Schenn2:24
xG 0.11–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Lebda – Gunnarsson5:50
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu8:11
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak5:30
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Cullen – Madden – Clutterbuck5:44
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom4:12
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Prosser12:11
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns10:47
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Stoner – Spurgeon11:24
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).