Tue, Mar 22, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Colorado Avalanche 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 115 | 27 | 06 | 0 | 433 |
| COL | 113 | 04 | 312 | 03 | 1 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14CBJRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:59COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Kevin Porter, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:38CBJDerek MacKenzieSHAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 7:00CBJR.J. UmbergerSHAssists: Jan Hejda, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 7:44COLMatt DucheneAssists: Mark Olver, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 14:36COLMatt DucheneAssists: Matt Hunwick, Mark Olver · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 16:55CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Scottie Upshall, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:56COLDaniel WinnikPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 2. CBJ R.J. Umberger stopped
- 3. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 5. COL Ryan Stoa stopped
- 6. CBJ Derick Brassard stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:57CBJAntoine Vermette: Broken stick2 min
- P2 9:40CBJMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P2 16:47COLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:26COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:25CBJCraig Rivet: Interference2 min
- P3 19:40CBJJan Hejda: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Voracek11:28
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Vermette – Umberger – Upshall12:39
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert6:09
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett10:50
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRivet – Russell8:23
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Hejda – Lepisto16:51
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Methot14:47
xG 0.46–0.55 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Olver – Duchene11:14
xG 0.48–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Porter – Stoa – O'Reilly6:12
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- McClement – Yip – McLeod8:54
xG 0.08–0.20 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Stastny8:37
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – O'Byrne12:38
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Holos14:05
xG 0.30–0.65 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Wilson11:48
xG 0.17–0.62 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).