Wed, Mar 23, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 120 | 18 | 233 |
| DET | 011 | 012 | 117 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:31VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 9:29VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 11:38DETJiri HudlerPPAssists: Daniel Cleary, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:45DETPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P1 14:28VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:05VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:23VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 8:47DETPatrick Eaves: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:56VANMason Raymond: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:59DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Raymond11:44
xG 0.84–0.18 (82%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:53
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Torres – Lapierre – Hansen10:03
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Tambellini – Bolduc – Oreskovich6:50
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Ehrhoff14:31
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa18:58
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Ballard – Rome13:40
xG 0.20–0.50 (28%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Zetterberg – Abdelkader4:26
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Hudler3:23
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Abdelkader – Mursak5:39
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Miller6:58
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart13:24
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Salei – Ericsson2:16
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Rafalski3:07
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).