Wed, Mar 23, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 0, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 05 | 010 | 023 |
| CHI | 012 | 112 | 37 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:41CHIBrent SeabrookPPGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 0:46CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 12:04CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 17:05CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Michael Frolik, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:48FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:06CHIMarian Hossa: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:02FLAJack Skille: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:09FLANiclas Bergfors: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Samsonov – Repik4:27
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Carter – Dadonov5:00
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Matthias – Dadonov7:49
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Booth – Repik3:26
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Sulzer14:24
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov13:28
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Weaver – Garrison16:23
xG 0.56–1.06 (35%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Brouwer – Kruger7:59
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane11:56
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Frolik10:26
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Pisani – Dowell7:18
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:18
xG 0.82–0.43 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Campoli – Leddy2:54
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Leddy9:57
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).