Wed, Mar 23, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 112 | 27 | 11 | 426 |
| DAL | 09 | 17 | 29 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:56ANALubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 9:57DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 4:29DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 4:40ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 13:21DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:53ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu, Lubomir Visnovsky · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 1:42ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:49DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:35ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Delaying game2 min
- P1 19:13DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:59ANASheldon Brookbank: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:33DALAlex Goligoski: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:03ANAJason Blake: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:05DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:24
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Winchester – McMillan – Sexton7:00
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake13:13
xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Fowler6:44
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky15:52
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa14:33
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Richards – Eriksson10:58
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ott – Benn – Vincour3:47
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Segal2:57
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Petersen – Williams – Wandell4:43
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLukowich – Fistric9:12
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley19:40
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski14:51
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).