Thu, Mar 24, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 0, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 06 | 09 | 024 |
| BOS | 318 | 011 | 412 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01BOSJohnny BoychukGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:43BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Zdeno Chara, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.33 xG0–2
- P1 17:28BOSNathan HortonPPAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P3 4:03BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 4:29BOSAdam McQuaidAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–5
- P3 11:27BOSTomas KaberleAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 13:35BOSGregory CampbellSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:18BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:05MTLRoman Hamrlik: Holding2 min
- P1 14:10MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 10:40MTLScott Gomez: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:43BOSMark Recchi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:43MTLPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43MTLPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43MTLScott Gomez: Holding2 min
- P2 19:43MTLPaul Mara: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:43BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:35BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:06BOSNathan Horton: Holding2 min
- P3 12:43BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:55BOSNathan Horton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Moen10:18
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Pouliot – White – Eller2:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White4:12
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Pouliot – Desharnais2:08
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski15:23
xG 0.94–0.45 (68%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Sopel – Mara7:43
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Gill – Subban10:47
xG 0.09–0.96 (9%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Marchand4:27
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:25
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Seguin4:27
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Bergeron6:16
xG 0.11–0.49 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk11:34
xG 0.92–0.36 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Kaberle – Seidenberg10:34
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Ference – McQuaid11:11
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).