Thu, Mar 24, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 19 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 231 |
| PHI | 17 | 08 | 05 | 00 | 1 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:18PHIMike RichardsAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Matt Carle · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:01PITTyler KennedyPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Ville Leino stopped
- 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. PIT Alex Kovalev scored
- 5. PHI Daniel Brière scored
- 6. PIT James Neal stopped
- 7. PHI Mike Richards stopped
- 8. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:12PITDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P1 19:38PHIAndreas Nodl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:35PITMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:04PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:05PITArron Asham: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Adams – Rupp5:29
xG 0.55–0.12 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Jeffrey6:09
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Talbot – Neal2:50
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Staal2:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Lovejoy16:49
xG 1.68–0.24 (87%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek17:43
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen8:54
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Giroux – Nodl3:38
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk4:32
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Nodl11:22
xG 0.28–0.39 (41%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe5:05
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros10:19
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle3:56
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Boynton – Carle5:10
xG 0.06–0.09 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).