Fri, Mar 25, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 0, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 08 | 012 | 031 |
| OTT | 010 | 18 | 15 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:25OTTColin GreeningGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Bobby Butler · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:12OTTErik CondraAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:52OTTFrancis Lessard: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:52WSHDJ King: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:11WSHScott Hannan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:34OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:39WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:04OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P3 7:43OTTNick Foligno: Kneeing2 min
- P3 12:55OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55WSHMatt Bradley: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:55WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55OTTZack Smith: Instigator2 min
- P3 12:55OTTZack Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:28WSHDennis Wideman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Winchester
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Semin – Backstrom9:14
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Backstrom2:33
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hendricks – King – Beagle3:29
xG 0.10–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sturm – Bradley – Gordon7:37
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz12:18
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Erskine13:10
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:33
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Smith2:55
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lessard – Svatos – Smith2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler7:05
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Neil – Foligno – Winchester9:14
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHale – Karlsson4:45
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kuba – Wiercioch3:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hale – Wiercioch4:52
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).