Fri, Mar 25, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Vancouver Canucks 3, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 214 | 15 | 326 |
| ATL | 010 | 09 | 112 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:08VANMason RaymondAssists: Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:24VANAlexandre BolducGWGAssists: Victor Oreskovich, Keith Ballard · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 14:30ATLBryan LittleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:47VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:59ATLRon Hainsey: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:43VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:36ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:25VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22VANAaron Rome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:43VANSami Salo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Raymond13:40
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows13:12
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Tambellini – Lapierre – Oreskovich2:26
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tambellini – Bolduc – Oreskovich4:34
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Ehrhoff16:59
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa18:41
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Ballard – Rome13:59
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Schremp – Kane12:56
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:34
xG 0.60–0.61 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Stewart – Stapleton – Maxwell9:10
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Thorburn – Burmistrov9:55
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Stuart9:30
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Oduya – Bogosian2:46
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian4:56
xG 0.28–0.20 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).