Sat, Mar 26, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 1, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 013 | 01 | 123 |
| BOS | 08 | 06 | 012 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Michael Sauer, Vinny Prospal · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:44BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:44NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:46BOSTyler Seguin: Interference2 min
- P2 1:07BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:31NYRMarian Gaborik: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:29BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:35BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Christensen – Wolski4:17
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Stepan9:20
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:28
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust12:00
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Eminger7:48
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi18:30
xG 0.25–0.34 (43%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Sauer – McDonagh15:12
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Peverley – Seguin9:57
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 20–2goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand6:49
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Bergeron4:09
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic13:26
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg2:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid11:35
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Seidenberg13:02
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).