Sat, Mar 26, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 111 | 05 | 121 |
| LAK | 211 | 07 | 27 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30LAKWillie MitchellAssists: Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:34LAKMichal HandzusPPGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 18:21COLMilan HejdukAssists: Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 1:36LAKRyan SmythAssists: Trevor Lewis, Dustin Brown · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 10:05LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:59LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P1 16:10COLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:50LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:02COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:05COLShawn Belle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Porter – Stoa4:39
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Yip – McLeod7:24
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Duchene5:30
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Jones – Stoa3:37
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Liles – Johnson16:57
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Holos12:41
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Belle – O'Byrne15:55
xG 0.18–0.35 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Stoll – Simmonds10:02
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Handzus – Penner – Moller4:22
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Brown – Lewis5:06
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Clifford5:17
xG 0.02–0.01 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty16:21
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Greene2:30
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson13:11
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).