Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 2, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 014 | 17 | 233 |
| MTL | 03 | 08 | 07 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24WSHMarco SturmGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P3 16:19WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marco Sturm · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:02MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 7:36MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Holding2 min
- P1 15:23MTLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:05MTLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:21WSHMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min
- P3 6:40WSHAlexander Semin: Holding2 min
- P3 16:49WSHMarcus Johansson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Semin – Backstrom10:28
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Fehr7:33
xG 0.26–0.08 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Chimera – Johansson9:12
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bradley – Gordon – Beagle7:20
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz14:09
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Erskine13:34
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:01
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec8:56
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen5:34
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White2:57
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Desharnais – Eller3:16
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski6:39
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Subban2:18
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sopel – Mara3:04
xG 0.02–0.11 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).