Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 311 | 04 | 17 | 422 |
| NYI | 116 | 015 | 06 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11PHIJeff CarterAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:33PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–0
- P1 10:28NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Josh Bailey, Radek Martinek · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–1
- P1 13:25PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Sean O'Donnell · Snap, 0.44 xG3–1
- P3 9:15PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Daniel Brière · Slap, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:02NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:21NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:21PHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:47PHIJeff Carter: Holding2 min
- P1 15:25PHIAndreas Nodl: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:11PHIKimmo Timonen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:27NYIRadek Martinek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:03NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:03PHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:03NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Betts
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk11:11
xG 0.82–0.28 (75%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe6:29
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:26
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Nodl10:08
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros13:26
xG 0.90–0.28 (76%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:10
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Timonen – Boynton2:59
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:44
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner12:35
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey9:31
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Konopka – Haley – Martin6:02
xG 0.03–0.88 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWishart – Hamonic15:31
xG 1.14–0.14 (89%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Martinek – Gervais18:23
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Jurcina – Hillen13:30
xG 0.13–1.01 (11%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).