Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 19 | 012 | 230 |
| NSH | 111 | 211 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:49DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:26NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:33NSHMike FisherAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sergei Kostitsyn · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 4:07DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Benn, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 9:57NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:56NSHDavid LegwandENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:39NSHSergei Kostitsyn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:59NSHShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13NSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:02DALJamie Langenbrunner: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:00NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro2:30
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Wandell2:08
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Wandell – Vincour3:26
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn12:11
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLukowich – Fistric8:31
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley14:22
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Robidas – Goligoski22:51
xG 0.89–1.24 (42%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist10:52
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling11:33
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Ward14:04
xG 0.73–0.73 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Wilson5:14
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Blum15:13
xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber19:38
xG 0.89–0.85 (51%)attempts 16–21goals 2–1
- O'Brien – Franson14:03
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).