Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 6, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 217 | 218 | 212 | 647 |
| MIN | 24 | 07 | 15 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:13MINMarek ZidlickyAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:41STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:53MINAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 18:57STLAdam CracknellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:09STLChris StewartAssists: T.J. Oshie, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P2 7:32STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 8:00STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: David Backes · Slap, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 10:45STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Nikita Nikitin · Slap, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 17:52MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Mikko Koivu, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:08MINMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:36STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09MINClayton Stoner: Interference2 min
- P2 3:37MINAntti Miettinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:22MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:39MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Stewart – Berglund9:05
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Crombeen – Porter – Cracknell12:13
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini10:09
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 3–0
- Janssen – Reaves – McRae7:32
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Shattenkirk12:55
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Polak13:20
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:44
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Kobasew – Bouchard – Brodziak2:01
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz2:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:01
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 2–2
- Kobasew – Nystrom – Staubitz3:12
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Zidlicky2:55
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon3:32
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky11:09
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).