Sun, Mar 27, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 113 | 012 | 02 | 0 | 138 |
| PIT | 05 | 18 | 011 | 04 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:32FLARyan CarterAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Darcy Hordichuk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 17:49PITBen LovejoyAssists: Alex Kovalev, James Neal · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 2. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 3. PIT Alex Kovalev scored
- 4. FLA Niclas Bergfors stopped
- 5. PIT James Neal scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:59PITMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:48FLAMichal Repik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:37FLARyan Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:22PITAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:58FLADavid Booth: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Santorelli – Dadonov11:54
xG 1.17–0.17 (87%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Carter6:12
xG 0.39–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors13:45
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Rissmiller – Repik10:50
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Sulzer9:50
xG 1.01–0.26 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Callahan – Garrison2:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov15:32
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Talbot – Conner2:03
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Talbot – Neal8:11
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Rupp3:56
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Asham – Rupp – Comrie2:20
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Niskanen2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek16:34
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang16:11
xG 0.20–0.61 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).