Sun, Mar 27, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Ottawa Senators 4, Atlanta Thrashers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 111 | 28 | 02 | 0 | 428 |
| ATL | 110 | 222 | 113 | 02 | 1 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02ATLBlake WheelerAssists: Zach Bogosian, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 5:51OTTMarek SvatosUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 10:15ATLBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 10:34ATLBen MaxwellAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 13:37OTTChris NeilAssists: Jesse Winchester, Patrick Wiercioch · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 2:08ATLMark StuartAssists: Nik Antropov, Ben Maxwell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 7:12OTTErik CondraAssists: Jason Spezza, Brian Lee · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 14:52OTTMarek SvatosAssists: Filip Kuba, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ATL Rob Schremp stopped
- 2. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 3. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 5. ATL Blake Wheeler stopped
- 6. OTT Marek Svatos stopped
- 7. ATL Andrew Ladd scored
- 8. OTT Ryan Shannon stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:30ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:32OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P1 16:24OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min
- P1 19:12OTTBrian Lee: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:56ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:08OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Winchester7:23
xG 0.63–0.39 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lessard – Svatos – Winchester2:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Michalek – Shannon – Butler2:36
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Svatos – Michalek – Shannon2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHale – Wiercioch6:55
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kuba – Karlsson15:56
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 2–2
- Lee – Wiercioch2:38
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Stapleton – Maxwell8:00
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:17
xG 0.52–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Schremp – Kane5:51
xG 0.22–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Antropov – Schremp – Kane4:42
xG 0.15–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Stuart15:09
xG 1.00–0.22 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien18:07
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:45
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).