Sun, Mar 27, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 05 | 312 | 424 |
| CBJ | 013 | 012 | 115 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Chris Higgins, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 3:36VANHenrik SedinPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 9:03VANChris HigginsAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 11:07CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:36VANChris HigginsPPAssists: Mason Raymond, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:02VANRaffi Torres: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:59CBJDerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:08VANChris Higgins: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:14VANJannik Hansen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:22CBJSami Lepisto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:29VANRyan Kesler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:24VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:35CBJJakub Voracek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:06CBJAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Raymond8:57
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows9:58
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Torres – Oreskovich – Hansen3:32
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tambellini – Lapierre – Oreskovich2:46
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Ballard4:10
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Rome6:05
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Ballard5:20
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Voracek9:58
xG 1.33–0.53 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Mayorov6:35
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Calvert11:48
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett8:22
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRivet – Russell9:47
xG 1.36–0.04 (97%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Hejda – Methot3:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Lepisto11:11
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).