Mon, Mar 28, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 214 | 016 | 010 | 11 | 341 |
| DET | 114 | 09 | 112 | 00 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Troy Brouwer, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 7:36DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brian Rafalski · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:18CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P3 2:25DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 0:51CHIMarian HossaPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:17DETTodd Bertuzzi: Elbowing5 min
- P1 5:17DETTodd Bertuzzi: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 6:08CHIMarian Hossa: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:55CHIMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:08DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:17CHITomas Kopecky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:44CHIRyan Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:44CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:26DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 12:41DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:41CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:56DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Toews – Kane11:56
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Hossa – Bickell – Kruger7:11
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Frolik6:10
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Pisani – Stalberg6:16
xG 0.29–0.53 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Campoli11:04
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:37
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Keith2:22
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Filppula – Franzen4:57
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Hudler10:55
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm4:38
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Draper – Abdelkader – Helm2:32
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Salei – Rafalski10:13
xG 0.70–0.90 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Lidstrom – Stuart13:20
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:33
xG 0.78–1.19 (40%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).