Tue, Mar 29, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 210 | 28 | 524 |
| PIT | 17 | 16 | 014 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22PITAlex KovalevAssists: Kris Letang, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:56PHIJeff CarterAssists: Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:21PITTyler KennedyAssists: Brooks Orpik, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 13:45PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Ville Leino, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 14:32PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Sean O'Donnell, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 5:30PHIVille LeinoAssists: Scott Hartnell, Daniel Brière · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 8:38PHIVille LeinoAssists: Daniel Brière, Sean O'Donnell · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:51PITChris Conner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:34PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:56PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 13:03PITPaul Martin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:59PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:23PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P3 16:08PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:18PHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk8:19
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Giroux – Nodl10:40
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe6:31
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:38
xG 0.44–0.67 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros8:26
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Boynton – Carle5:37
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Coburn5:24
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Talbot – Conner8:45
xG 0.64–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Neal – Letestu10:07
xG 0.38–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Rupp8:19
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal12:14
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang12:46
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy9:18
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Orpik – Lovejoy2:04
xG 0.04–0.20 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).