Tue, Mar 29, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 19 | 16 | 00 | 2 | 326 |
| WSH | 016 | 212 | 07 | 05 | 0 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:29CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 14:18WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:35WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alexander Semin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 1:46CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner scored
- 2. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 5. CAR Tuomo Ruutu scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:23CARBryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:23WSHJason Arnott: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:56WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P1 11:39CARChad LaRose: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:34CARErik Cole: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:05WSHScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 1:06WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:41WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03CARJamie McBain: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:10WSHDennis Wideman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 16:41WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman6:33
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner11:40
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal11:01
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson3:51
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Allen2:14
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – Joslin2:04
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Allen – Pitkanen4:03
xG 0.02–0.08 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:47
xG 1.10–0.32 (78%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Laich – Semin8:51
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon7:11
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Sturm – Fehr – Johansson8:35
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:34
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 26–7goals 1–0
- Hannan – Erskine11:17
xG 0.45–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hannan – Schultz4:41
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).