Tue, Mar 29, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 19 | 112 | 01 | 0 | 231 |
| CBJ | 111 | 110 | 08 | 03 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06CBJScottie UpshallAssists: Derek Dorsett, Samuel Pahlsson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:41FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Mike Santorelli · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 18:58CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: R.J. Umberger, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 7:31FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jason Garrison, Steve Bernier · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 2. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 3. CBJ Maksim Mayorov scored
- 4. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 5. CBJ Matt Calvert stopped
- 6. FLA Sergei Samsonov stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:41CBJAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:48FLAMichal Repik: Holding2 min
- P1 19:12FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:00CBJMarc Methot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:13CBJDerick Brassard: Interference2 min
- P3 19:07FLAMike Weaver: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Rissmiller – Repik3:14
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Carter – Dadonov3:24
xG 0.06–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Repik4:42
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Rissmiller – Carter – Repik3:18
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weaver – Garrison17:18
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov16:12
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Callahan – Wilson12:27
xG 0.20–0.82 (20%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Calvert6:11
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett6:58
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek7:55
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Vermette – Umberger – Calvert6:59
xG 0.26–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Methot18:34
xG 1.07–0.32 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Rivet – Russell9:24
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hejda – Lepisto17:29
xG 0.12–0.57 (18%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).