Tue, Mar 29, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 07 | 011 | 110 | 128 |
| MTL | 214 | 010 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:56MTLRoman HamrlikAssists: Jeff Halpern, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 13:07MTLMathieu DarcheGWGAssists: Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 8:35ATLNik AntropovAssists: Eric Boulton · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 18:40MTLAndrei KostitsynENAssists: Paul Mara · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:20ATLRob Schremp: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:19ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:07MTLRyan White: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:07ATLTim Stapleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:52ATLZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:52ATLEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:55MTLScott Gomez: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:55ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:33ATLRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:33MTLP.K. Subban: Diving2 min
- P3 10:17ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01MTLPaul Mara: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:18
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Stapleton – Maxwell2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Schremp – Kane2:16
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov2:14
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien10:50
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian7:49
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian6:29
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec11:08
xG 0.87–0.48 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Gomez – Gionta – Darche11:46
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White6:10
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller8:33
xG 0.02–0.53 (3%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski15:40
xG 1.34–0.21 (87%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Gill – Subban13:43
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Sopel – Mara12:51
xG 0.30–0.76 (29%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).