Tue, Mar 29, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 05 | 16 | 08 | 2 | 328 |
| STL | 111 | 07 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43MINEric NystromAssists: Martin Havlat, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:02STLChris StewartPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 1:19STLChris StewartAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 3:47MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard scored
- 2. STL Chris Stewart stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. STL Andy McDonald scored
- 5. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
- 6. STL Matt D'Agostini stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:39MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:44MINJohn Madden: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:47MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:05STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min
- P1 16:41MINBrent Burns: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:41STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:27STLAdam Cracknell: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:01MINBrad Staubitz: Charging2 min
- P2 16:10MINClayton Stoner: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:10STLCam Janssen: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:05STLMatt D'Agostini: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:55STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against McDonald
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Nystrom – Staubitz3:45
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:02
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Nystrom6:16
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Bouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck6:57
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon9:05
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Zanon – Stoner2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns16:25
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Porter – Cracknell10:04
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Stewart – Berglund8:36
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Janssen – Reaves – McRae5:55
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini10:14
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:08
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole3:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Polak12:40
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).